Governor Ron DeSantis, a man once heralded as the future of the Republican Party, has dropped out of the 2024 race for President of the United States. DeSantis, who even before throwing his hat into the ring last May was tied, or even ahead, of former President Donald Trump in polling nationwide. However, the governor got a distant second place in Iowa on Jan. 16. This, along with his campaign supposedly running out of money, led to the announcement the following Sunday that it simply was not time for him. He ended up endorsing the man that he was trying to grab the reins of the Republican Party from. However, the more surprising topic that comes from this decision is not so much DeSantis, but instead, the woman who got third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, former Ambassador and Governor Nikki Haley.
Haley, who got 19% in Iowa and 43% in New Hampshire, vowed after New Hampshire’s primary on Jan. 23 to stay in the race, saying, “New Hampshire is first in the nation — it is not the last in the nation.” Why Haley would stay in the race is something to be theorized. It may be money, as she did raise over one million dollars in just twenty-four hours after New Hampshire’s primary. Or maybe hope that in later primaries she gains momentum, as it is effectively a two-person race, and despite her losing both primaries, going from 19% to 43% in a week can be seen by the campaign as building momentum. However, while Haley is fighting off one opponent, Trump so happens to be fighting two. While Haley is his main opponent in the primaries, the legal system is Trump’s main opponent in his personal life, as well as the Republican Party and the nation as a whole.
The former President currently has 91 criminal charges against him, all of them stemming from a wide range of endeavors in his personal life, from tax issues facing his family’s company– The Trump Organization– to personal misconduct in cases against such people like E. Jean Carroll, which ended with him having to pay her $83 million on Jan. 26. There’s also the Civil Suit brought against him in Washington, D.C. regarding Jan. 6, 2021, claiming he was the reason for Jan. 6. Another case against him charges him with the offense of trying to overturn the 2020 federal election, the election where then President Trump lost to current President Joe Biden. This case is notable not only because of the subject matter but also because of the trial date, Mar. 4 of this year, just a single day before “Super Tuesday,” a day when 15 states and federal territories hold their primaries for President.
What does this have to do with Nikki Haley? The answer is that if Trump is found guilty in any of these cases and arrested, then the Republican Party will most likely need a new nominee. While the legality of a convicted criminal running for office, and especially being seated, is debatable, a convicted criminal is not a popular candidate for the general voter, especially in swing states. A poll conducted by the New York Times last December stated that in swing states, most Trump voters would still vote for him if he was convicted. However, about 6% of Trump voters stated that they would vote for President Biden, which is not good for Republicans in swing states. While all of this is still theoretically speaking, what if Trump were to be convicted and the Republican Party refused to nominate him? They would need a new candidate; if she is still in the race, Nikki Haley would get it by default.
Whether you believe it is deserved or not, one must not deny that 91 federal cases against Trump are a lot to handle and may haunt him for years to come. Politics is an ever-changing game, and while Trump may be leading in the primaries and has a good chance in the general with a rematch, anything could happen, especially regarding the legal system.
This takes us back to square one, however, with the question of why former Ambassador Nikki Haley is still in the race. If she stays in the race long enough, she may be nominated by default. Yes, Trump may be beating Haley in the primaries right now. However, he will also need to beat the legal issues as well. If that takes him down, then we could see Haley be the Republican nominee simply by still being a candidate, even if the voters of the party make it known that they disagree with this notion heavily.